← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-33JAN01-T4.25
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2032 be above 4.25%?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 30.0%, down 2.5pt over 24h, on a 49.0¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 45 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.4σ — an unusually large move.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 2272d 5h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
⚠ Single sourceSummary
If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2032, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 4.25%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than a target range, that target rate will be used.