← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXGDPYEAR-32-B3.8
GDP growth in 2032?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 4.0%, up 1.0pt over 24h, on a 6.0¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 20/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 60 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.3σ — an unusually large move.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 2323d 15h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
⚠ Single sourceSummary
If the United States real GDP growth in 2032 is between 3.6% to 4.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2032. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2032 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2032 GDP in early 2033. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered.