← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXGDPYEAR-35-B4.8

GDP growth in 2035?

2.0% implied · bid 1.0¢ · ask 3.0¢

☆ Log in to track ☆ Log in to set an alert

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 3.0%, flat over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.

Implied probability3.0%

Bid / ask / mid1.0¢ / 3.0¢ / 2.0¢

Spread2.0¢ (100.0%)

Change 24hn/a

Change 7dn/a

Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$0

Volume qualityPro

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$3 / $16

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score40.0 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.00

RSI (14, hourly)50.0

Realized vol 7d0.00pt

Change 1hn/a

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 3418d 15h.

Time to resolve3418d 15h

Resolution sourcemanual-review

Rules risklow (15)

Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

No price history yet.

Probability timeline

No history yet.

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

Settlement sourcesNot published.

DeadlineNot published.

Close → settlementExpected settlement is 1.5h after scheduled close.

Summary

If the United States real GDP growth in 2035 is between 4.6% to 5.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.

Expanded rules

This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2035. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2035 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2035 GDP in early 2036. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered.