Refacto TerminalPolymarket
Healthy
AdvertisementYour banner here · 728 × 90 · ads@refacto.app

← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXLFPRATEEOY-33JAN07-T56.00

Will U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2032 be above 56.00%?

97.0% implied · bid 95.0¢ · ask 99.0¢

☆ Log in to track☆ Log in to set an alert

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 93.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 4.0¢ spread.

Implied probability93.0%
Bid / ask / mid95.0¢ / 99.0¢ / 97.0¢
Spread4.0¢ (4.1%)
Change 24h+0.00pt
Change 7d+0.00pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 30/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 50% to the bid (buyers).

Volume 24h$0
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance50% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score30.0 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 14.5σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean-14.45
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.48pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 2278d 11h.

Time to resolve2278d 11h
Resolution sourcemanual-review
Rules risklow (15)
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth

Order book unavailable.

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

⚠ Single source
Settlement sources
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementExpected settlement is 168.0h after scheduled close.

Summary

If the U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2032 is above 56.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.

Expanded rules

For purposes of this market, “year-end” means the December 2032 reference month, regardless of when the corresponding data are released. The market will resolve based on the first value published for December 2032. Later revisions, corrections, or updates will not affect resolution. If Trading Economics is unavailable or does not publish the relevant December 2032 value, Kalshi may use the corresponding value from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics or FRED series CIVPART. Values will be compared as published without additional rounding.