← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXNEXTTRILLIONAIRE-33-BA

Will Bernard Arnault & family be the world's second trillionaire?

3.5% implied · bid 1.0¢ · ask 6.0¢

☆ Log in to track ☆ Log in to set an alert

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 2.0%, flat over 24h, on a 5.0¢ spread.

Implied probability2.0%

Bid / ask / mid1.0¢ / 6.0¢ / 3.5¢

Spread5.0¢ (142.9%)

Change 24hn/a

Change 7dn/a

Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 25/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$0

Volume qualityPro

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1 / $14

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score25.0 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.00

RSI (14, hourly)50.0

Realized vol 7d0.00pt

Change 1hn/a

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 2265d 14h.

Time to resolve2265d 14h

Resolution sourcemanual-review

Rules risklow (15)

Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

No price history yet.

Probability timeline

No history yet.

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

Settlement sourcesNot published.

DeadlineNot published.

Close → settlementExpected settlement is 0.0h after scheduled close.

Summary

If Forbes reports that Bernard Arnault & family has become the second person in the world to reach a net worth of at least $1 trillion USD before Jan 1, 2033 then the market resolves to Yes.

Expanded rules

Not published.