Refacto TerminalPolymarket
Healthy
AdvertisementYour banner here · 728 × 90 · ads@refacto.app

← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXNEXTTRILLIONAIRE-33-JH

Will Jensen Huang be the world's second trillionaire?

9.5% implied · bid 8.0¢ · ask 11.0¢

☆ Log in to track☆ Log in to set an alert

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 13.0%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.

Implied probability13.0%
Bid / ask / mid8.0¢ / 11.0¢ / 9.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (31.6%)
Change 24h-0.50pt
Change 7d-3.50pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 35/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$0
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2 / $22
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.0 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.5σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean1.54
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d1.50pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 2265d 13h.

Time to resolve2265d 13h
Resolution sourcemanual-review
Rules risklow (15)
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

⚠ Single source
Settlement sources
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementExpected settlement is 0.0h after scheduled close.

Summary

If Forbes reports that Jensen Huang has become the second person in the world to reach a net worth of at least $1 trillion USD before Jan 1, 2033 then the market resolves to Yes.

Expanded rules

Not published.