← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXNOMGDPGROWTH-33JAN28-T4.5
Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2032 be above 4.5%?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 45.0%, flat over 24h, on a 10.0¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 44% to the ask (sellers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 2299d 13h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Summary
If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2032 is above 4.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
The Underlying is the 2032 annual value for GDP under “Current-dollar measures” in the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis release titled “GDP (Advance Estimate), 4th Quarter and Year 2032,” or its equivalent successor publication. The value will be taken as reported by BEA, in percentage terms and to the precision published by BEA. Subsequent estimates, revisions, annual updates, or benchmark revisions will not affect resolution.