← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXTRADEDEFICIT-32FEB02-T1200
Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2031 be above $1.2 trillion?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 41.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 10.0¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 19% to the ask (sellers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.6σ — normal range.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1938d 13h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
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Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
⚠ Single sourceSummary
If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2031 is strictly above $1.2 trillion dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
The Underlying is the nominal goods and services balance on a balance-of-payments basis. It will not use the goods-only deficit, the advance goods report, the December monthly deficit, or inflation-adjusted trade data. Because the agencies generally report the balance as a negative number, the market will use the absolute size of the deficit. For example, an annual trade balance of −$800.1 billion constitutes a trade deficit of $800.1 billion. Resolution will use the first annual estimate published in the release covering December of 2031. Subsequent annual revisions will not be considered.