← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXU3EOY-32JAN09-T4.5
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2031 be above 4.5%?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 70.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 10.0¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 46% to the ask (sellers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.6σ — normal range.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1914d 13h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
⚠ Single sourceSummary
If the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2031 is above 4.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
“Year-end” refers exclusively to the December reference month, regardless of when the corresponding data are released. It does not refer to the annual average, the fourth-quarter average, the highest unemployment rate reported during the year, or the latest unemployment rate available as of December 31. The Expiration Value is the first non-preliminary seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for December 2031. Values will be compared as published without rounding. Later revisions will not affect the outcome.