← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXU3MAX-30-7
How high will unemployment get before 2030?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 90.0%, down 5.0pt over 24h, on a 9.0¢ spread.
Implied probability90.0%
Bid / ask / mid66.0¢ / 75.0¢ / 70.5¢
Spread9.0¢ (12.8%)
Change 24h-5.00pt
Change 7d+7.50pt
Longshot tax+7% historically (80-90¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 5/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 31% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$4 / $150
Imbalance31% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score5.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 71 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.7σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.71
RSI (14, hourly)71.1
Realized vol 7d0.00pt
Change 1h-5.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1172d 15h.
Time to resolve1172d 15h
Resolution sourcemanual-review
Rules risklow (15)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 80-90¢ bucket has returned +7% per $1, historically.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
⚠ Single sourceSettlement sources
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementExpected settlement is 1.6h after scheduled close.
Summary
If, from June 2025 to January 2030 the U-3 unemployment rate is above 7%, the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
Not published.