← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXUSCPIYEAR-35FEB01-T4.5
Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2034 be above 4.5%?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 37.0%, flat over 24h, on a 36.0¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 3033d 6h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
⚠ Single sourceSummary
If the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U, U.S. city average, all items, not seasonally adjusted, in December 2034 is above 4.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
The initially reported value for December 2034 will be used. This market concerns the 12-month percentage change for December 2034, not the annual-average percentage change for the specified year.