← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1028586
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 88.0%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability88.0%
Bid / ask / mid87.0¢ / 88.0¢ / 87.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.1%)
Change 24h-0.50pt
Change 7d-1.00pt
Longshot tax+7% historically (80-90¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 60/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 35% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$13,602 / $16,631
Imbalance35% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score60.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.51
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.29pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 438d 3h.
Time to resolve438d 3h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules risklow (15)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 80-90¢ bucket has returned +7% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.