← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1029715

Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?

16.4% implied · bid 15.1¢ · ask 17.6¢

The market prices this at 26.4%, down 10.1pt over 24h, on a 2.5¢ spread.

Implied probability26.4%

Bid / ask / mid15.1¢ / 17.6¢ / 16.4¢

Spread2.5¢ (15.3%)

Change 24h-10.05pt

Change 7d+6.80pt

Thin (score 38/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$2,229

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$92 / $24

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score37.6 / 100

RSI 66 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 3.7σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean3.74

RSI (14, hourly)66.4

Realized vol 7d2.28pt

Change 1h+0.75pt

Resolves in 118d 11h.

Time to resolve118d 11h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%