← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1076686
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 13.0%, down 1.0pt over 24h, on a 7.0¢ spread.
Implied probability13.0%
Bid / ask / mid11.0¢ / 18.0¢ / 14.5¢
Spread7.0¢ (48.3%)
Change 24h-1.00pt
Change 7d+0.50pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 15/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 18% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$7 / $25
Imbalance18% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score15.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.32
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.74pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 5h.
Time to resolve73d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (80)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.