← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1087309

Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?

9.1% implied · bid 8.5¢ · ask 9.7¢

The market prices this at 8.1%, up 1.4pt over 24h, on a 1.2¢ spread.

Implied probability8.1%

Bid / ask / mid8.5¢ / 9.7¢ / 9.1¢

Spread1.2¢ (13.2%)

Change 24h+1.40pt

Change 7d-1.90pt

Moderately liquid (score 44/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$7,228

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$124 / $351

Imbalance1% bid

Large trades (>$1k)1

Liquidity score44.2 / 100

RSI 97 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.48

RSI (14, hourly)97.1

Realized vol 7d0.21pt

Change 1h+1.60pt

Resolves in 149d 12h.

Time to resolve149d 12h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%