← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1087310
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 2.1%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 0.8¢ spread.
Implied probability2.1%
Bid / ask / mid2.1¢ / 2.9¢ / 2.5¢
Spread0.8¢ (32.0%)
Change 24h+0.00pt
Change 7d+0.05pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$19
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$187 / $266
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score46.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 11.7σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-11.68
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.01pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 104d 3h.
Time to resolve104d 3h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.