← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1087312
Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?
4.9% implied · bid 4.1¢ · ask 5.6¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 4.8%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 1.5¢ spread.
Implied probability4.8%
Bid / ask / mid4.1¢ / 5.6¢ / 4.9¢
Spread1.5¢ (30.9%)
Change 24h-0.55pt
Change 7d+0.15pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 43/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$271
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$130 / $138
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score42.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 13 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.06
RSI (14, hourly)13.3
Realized vol 7d0.09pt
Change 1h-0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 149d 12h.
Time to resolve149d 12h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%