← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1090496
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
25.5% implied · bid 25.0¢ · ask 26.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 26.0%, up 2.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability26.0%
Bid / ask / mid25.0¢ / 26.0¢ / 25.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (3.9%)
Change 24h+2.00pt
Change 7d-1.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 47/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 38% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$19,196
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$3,506 / $1,217
Imbalance38% bid
Large trades (>$1k)2
Liquidity score47.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.8σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.78
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.47pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 118d 12h.
Time to resolve118d 12h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%