← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1105744
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 72.7%, up 1.3pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability72.7%
Bid / ask / mid72.8¢ / 73.8¢ / 73.3¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.4%)
Change 24h+1.35pt
Change 7d+1.85pt
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 95/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$29,872
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$11,996 / $105,560
Imbalance3% bid
Large trades (>$1k)3
Liquidity score95.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.7σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.74
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.57pt
Change 1h+0.10pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 5h.
Time to resolve73d 5h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.