← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1105755
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 2.3%, up 0.1pt over 24h, on a 0.4¢ spread.
Implied probability2.3%
Bid / ask / mid1.9¢ / 2.3¢ / 2.1¢
Spread0.4¢ (19.0%)
Change 24h+0.05pt
Change 7d-0.20pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 49/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$261
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$795 / $252
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score48.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.16
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d0.06pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 72d 0h.
Time to resolve72d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.