← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1107582
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
13.5% implied · bid 13.0¢ · ask 14.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 13.0%, down 1.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability13.0%
Bid / ask / mid13.0¢ / 14.0¢ / 13.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (7.4%)
Change 24h-1.00pt
Change 7d-2.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 48/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 5% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$19,344
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,805 / $3,779
Imbalance5% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score48.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 3.2σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-3.23
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d0.11pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 118d 12h.
Time to resolve118d 12h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%