← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1107737
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 3.5%, up 0.6pt over 24h, on a 0.2¢ spread.
Implied probability3.5%
Bid / ask / mid3.5¢ / 3.7¢ / 3.6¢
Spread0.2¢ (5.6%)
Change 24h+0.60pt
Change 7d+0.55pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$6,345
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,209 / $532
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score50.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.4σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.37
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.04pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 5h.
Time to resolve73d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.