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← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1144471

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?

4.5% implied · bid 4.4¢ · ask 4.5¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 4.5%, up 0.2pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.

Implied probability4.5%
Bid / ask / mid4.4¢ / 4.5¢ / 4.5¢
Spread0.1¢ (2.2%)
Change 24h+0.20pt
Change 7d-0.20pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 54/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$36,601
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$7,471 / $1,519
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)5
Liquidity score54.0 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.00
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d0.04pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 118d 12h.

Time to resolve118d 12h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth