← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1192820
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 97.1%, up 0.2pt over 24h, on a 0.7¢ spread.
Implied probability97.1%
Bid / ask / mid95.3¢ / 96.0¢ / 95.7¢
Spread0.7¢ (0.7%)
Change 24h+0.15pt
Change 7d-0.35pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 64/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 38% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,239
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$9,570 / $24,824
Imbalance38% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score63.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 39 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 5.7σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean5.72
RSI (14, hourly)38.9
Realized vol 7d0.10pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 103d 0h.
Time to resolve103d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.