← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1192821
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 1.4%, down 1.4pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability1.4%
Bid / ask / mid1.4¢ / 2.4¢ / 1.9¢
Spread1.0¢ (52.6%)
Change 24h-1.40pt
Change 7d-1.55pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$2,640
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$41 / $158
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 6.7σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-6.70
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d0.06pt
Change 1h-0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 103d 0h.
Time to resolve103d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.