← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1193103
Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 2.3%, down 1.7pt over 24h, on a 0.6¢ spread.
Implied probability2.3%
Bid / ask / mid1.2¢ / 1.8¢ / 1.5¢
Spread0.6¢ (40.0%)
Change 24h-1.65pt
Change 7d+0.55pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 48/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$33,692
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$36 / $1,389
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score47.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 33 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.85
RSI (14, hourly)32.8
Realized vol 7d0.20pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (80)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.