← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1193650
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 99.1%, down 0.1pt over 24h, on a 0.2¢ spread.
Implied probability99.1%
Bid / ask / mid98.9¢ / 99.1¢ / 99.0¢
Spread0.2¢ (0.2%)
Change 24h-0.05pt
Change 7d+0.35pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 99/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 60% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$12,822
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$70,979 / $58,869
Imbalance60% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score99.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 40 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.84
RSI (14, hourly)40.0
Realized vol 7d0.08pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 5h.
Time to resolve73d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (50)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.