← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1194695
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
6.5% implied · bid 6.0¢ · ask 7.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 7.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability7.0%
Bid / ask / mid6.0¢ / 7.0¢ / 6.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (15.4%)
Change 24h+0.00pt
Change 7d-1.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 48/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 6% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$2
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$4,591 / $1,784
Imbalance6% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score48.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.89
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.08pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 117d 10h.
Time to resolve117d 10h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%