← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1235552
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 5.5%, down 3.9pt over 24h, on a 1.5¢ spread.
Implied probability5.5%
Bid / ask / mid4.2¢ / 5.7¢ / 5.0¢
Spread1.5¢ (30.3%)
Change 24h-3.95pt
Change 7d-4.10pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 44/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$153,589
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$937 / $1,212
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)13
Liquidity score43.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 25 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.9σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.89
RSI (14, hourly)25.4
Realized vol 7d1.23pt
Change 1h-0.35pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 12d 0h.
Time to resolve12d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (20)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.