← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1243900
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 11.6%, down 0.7pt over 24h, on a 4.1¢ spread.
Implied probability11.6%
Bid / ask / mid9.1¢ / 13.2¢ / 11.2¢
Spread4.1¢ (36.8%)
Change 24h-0.70pt
Change 7d-22.85pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 30/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$93
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$38 / $65
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score29.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 63 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.15
RSI (14, hourly)63.4
Realized vol 7d1.91pt
Change 1h+0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 85d 5h.
Time to resolve85d 5h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.