← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1243901
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 71.7%, down 2.2pt over 24h, on a 5.5¢ spread.
Implied probability71.7%
Bid / ask / mid68.0¢ / 73.5¢ / 70.8¢
Spread5.5¢ (7.8%)
Change 24h-2.20pt
Change 7d+24.80pt
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 23/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$38
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$247 / $963
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score23.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 19 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.5σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.53
RSI (14, hourly)18.7
Realized vol 7d1.22pt
Change 1h+0.70pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 85d 3h.
Time to resolve85d 3h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.