← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1243902
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.50% and 5.99%?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 16.8%, down 0.1pt over 24h, on a 2.1¢ spread.
Implied probability16.8%
Bid / ask / mid13.8¢ / 15.9¢ / 14.8¢
Spread2.1¢ (14.1%)
Change 24h-0.05pt
Change 7d+0.75pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 40/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$15
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$78 / $38
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score39.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.27
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d2.54pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 85d 3h.
Time to resolve85d 3h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.