← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1284831

Will the Republican Party win the TX-04 House seat?

96.2% implied · bid 96.0¢ · ask 96.3¢

☆ Log in to track ☆ Log in to set an alert

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 96.5%, up 0.7pt over 24h, on a 0.3¢ spread.

Implied probability96.5%

Bid / ask / mid96.0¢ / 96.3¢ / 96.2¢

Spread0.3¢ (0.3%)

Change 24h+0.65pt

Change 7d+1.15pt

Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)

B · Liquidity & flow

Deep and tight (score 99/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 10% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$12,912

Volume qualityPro

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$5,600 / $209,781

Imbalance10% bid

Large trades (>$1k)2

Liquidity score98.5 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 44 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.3σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean2.33

RSI (14, hourly)43.9

Realized vol 7d0.28pt

Change 1h+1.80pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 15d 5h.

Time to resolve15d 5h

Resolution sourcedocumented

Rules riskmedium (45)

Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.

Who holds this

Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

Settlement sourcesNot published.

DeadlineNot published.

Close → settlementNot published.

Summary

Not published.

Expanded rules

Not published.