← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1284832
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-04 House seat?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 1.4%, up 1.3pt over 24h, on a 1.2¢ spread.
Implied probability1.4%
Bid / ask / mid1.7¢ / 2.9¢ / 2.3¢
Spread1.2¢ (52.2%)
Change 24h+1.30pt
Change 7d-2.25pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 44/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$197
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$16 / $227
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score44.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.06
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d0.41pt
Change 1h+0.10pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 15d 5h.
Time to resolve15d 5h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.