← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1285032
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-36 House seat?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 3.7%, up 0.8pt over 24h, on a 0.8¢ spread.
Implied probability3.7%
Bid / ask / mid4.3¢ / 5.1¢ / 4.7¢
Spread0.8¢ (17.0%)
Change 24h+0.80pt
Change 7d+1.15pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 47/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$18,489
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$819 / $512
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)3
Liquidity score46.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 56 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.10
RSI (14, hourly)55.9
Realized vol 7d0.23pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 15d 5h.
Time to resolve15d 5h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.