← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1302038
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
5.6% implied · bid 5.5¢ · ask 5.7¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 5.2%, down 1.6pt over 24h, on a 0.2¢ spread.
Implied probability5.2%
Bid / ask / mid5.5¢ / 5.7¢ / 5.6¢
Spread0.2¢ (3.6%)
Change 24h-1.65pt
Change 7d-0.45pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$8,918
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,060 / $1,821
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score50.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 17 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.8σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-2.81
RSI (14, hourly)16.7
Realized vol 7d0.13pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 117d 7h.
Time to resolve117d 7h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%