← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1302038
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 3.2%, up 0.6pt over 24h, on a 1.9¢ spread.
Implied probability3.2%
Bid / ask / mid1.4¢ / 3.3¢ / 2.4¢
Spread1.9¢ (80.9%)
Change 24h+0.65pt
Change 7d-0.20pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 41/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$23,078
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$195 / $201
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)4
Liquidity score40.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 56 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.8σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.76
RSI (14, hourly)55.9
Realized vol 7d0.34pt
Change 1h-1.55pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 2h.
Time to resolve0d 2h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (50)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.