← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1357398
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 15.5%, up 2.9pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability15.5%
Bid / ask / mid15.5¢ / 15.6¢ / 15.6¢
Spread0.1¢ (0.6%)
Change 24h+2.90pt
Change 7d+4.10pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 53/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$13,907
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$3,598 / $3,220
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score52.9 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 44 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.6σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.61
RSI (14, hourly)43.8
Realized vol 7d0.27pt
Change 1h-0.10pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 163d 4h.
Time to resolve163d 4h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (20)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.