← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1364103
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
78.5% implied · bid 78.0¢ · ask 79.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 78.0%, down 1.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability78.0%
Bid / ask / mid78.0¢ / 79.0¢ / 78.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.3%)
Change 24h-1.50pt
Change 7d-13.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 56/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 22% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$4,971
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$7,534 / $14,238
Imbalance22% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score55.9 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.1σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-2.13
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.75pt
Change 1h+1.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 15d 7h.
Time to resolve15d 7h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%