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Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?

21.0% implied · bid 20.0¢ · ask 22.0¢

The market prices this at 22.0%, up 1.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.

Implied probability22.0%

Bid / ask / mid20.0¢ / 22.0¢ / 21.0¢

Spread2.0¢ (9.5%)

Change 24h+1.50pt

Change 7d+12.00pt

Moderately liquid (score 43/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$2,287

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$585 / $4,575

Imbalance1% bid

Large trades (>$1k)1

Liquidity score42.6 / 100

RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.1σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean2.13

RSI (14, hourly)50.0

Realized vol 7d0.83pt

Change 1h-1.00pt

Resolves in 15d 7h.

Time to resolve15d 7h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%