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Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

12.8% implied · bid 12.1¢ · ask 13.4¢

The market prices this at 13.7%, up 4.1pt over 24h, on a 1.3¢ spread.

Implied probability13.7%

Bid / ask / mid12.1¢ / 13.4¢ / 12.8¢

Spread1.3¢ (10.2%)

Change 24h+4.10pt

Change 7d+6.20pt

Moderately liquid (score 44/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$21,498

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$414 / $1,367

Imbalance1% bid

Large trades (>$1k)1

Liquidity score44.4 / 100

RSI 85 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.5σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean1.49

RSI (14, hourly)85.5

Realized vol 7d0.61pt

Change 1h+0.15pt

Resolves in 29d 7h.

Time to resolve29d 7h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%