← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1365896
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
10.5% implied · bid 10.0¢ · ask 11.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 8.0%, up 0.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability8.0%
Bid / ask / mid10.0¢ / 11.0¢ / 10.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (9.5%)
Change 24h+0.50pt
Change 7d-23.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$3,284
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$42 / $346
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 55 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.3σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.31
RSI (14, hourly)54.5
Realized vol 7d1.25pt
Change 1h+1.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 29d 7h.
Time to resolve29d 7h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%