← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1365905
Will Pablo Marçal finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
7.9% implied · bid 6.2¢ · ask 9.6¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 9.8%, up 7.5pt over 24h, on a 3.4¢ spread.
Implied probability9.8%
Bid / ask / mid6.2¢ / 9.6¢ / 7.9¢
Spread3.4¢ (43.0%)
Change 24h+7.55pt
Change 7d+7.30pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 33/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$6,918
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$8 / $615
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score33.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 99 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 15.8σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean15.82
RSI (14, hourly)98.7
Realized vol 7d0.58pt
Change 1h+7.45pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 29d 7h.
Time to resolve29d 7h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%