← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1366007
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?
44.0% implied · bid 43.0¢ · ask 45.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 45.0%, down 1.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability45.0%
Bid / ask / mid43.0¢ / 45.0¢ / 44.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (4.5%)
Change 24h-1.00pt
Change 7d+10.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 41/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$141
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$565 / $533
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.18
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d1.16pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 29d 7h.
Time to resolve29d 7h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%