← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1366008

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?

39.5% implied · bid 39.0¢ · ask 40.0¢

The market prices this at 41.0%, down 1.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability41.0%

Bid / ask / mid39.0¢ / 40.0¢ / 39.5¢

Spread1.0¢ (2.5%)

Change 24h-1.50pt

Change 7d-3.00pt

Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$72

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$94 / $316

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score45.2 / 100

RSI 57 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.4σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.41

RSI (14, hourly)57.1

Realized vol 7d1.00pt

Change 1h+1.00pt

Resolves in 29d 7h.

Time to resolve29d 7h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%