← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1366009

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%?

5.5% implied · bid 5.4¢ · ask 5.6¢

The market prices this at 5.8%, up 0.4pt over 24h, on a 0.2¢ spread.

Implied probability5.8%

Bid / ask / mid5.4¢ / 5.6¢ / 5.5¢

Spread0.2¢ (3.6%)

Change 24h+0.35pt

Change 7d-0.05pt

Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$2,485

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,293 / $61

Imbalance1% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score49.7 / 100

RSI 46 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.4σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.36

RSI (14, hourly)46.4

Realized vol 7d0.32pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 29d 7h.

Time to resolve29d 7h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%