← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1366011
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?
6.0% implied · bid 4.9¢ · ask 7.2¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 4.3%, up 2.3pt over 24h, on a 2.3¢ spread.
Implied probability4.3%
Bid / ask / mid4.9¢ / 7.2¢ / 6.0¢
Spread2.3¢ (38.0%)
Change 24h+2.30pt
Change 7d-0.15pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 39/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$303
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$100 / $51
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score38.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 37 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.5σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.55
RSI (14, hourly)37.5
Realized vol 7d0.35pt
Change 1h+0.15pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 29d 6h.
Time to resolve29d 6h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%