← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1393316
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 97.8%, down 0.3pt over 24h, on a 1.4¢ spread.
Implied probability97.8%
Bid / ask / mid96.2¢ / 97.6¢ / 96.9¢
Spread1.4¢ (1.4%)
Change 24h-0.25pt
Change 7d-1.05pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 93/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 21% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$659
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$13,578 / $120,972
Imbalance21% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score93.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 60 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.4σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.36
RSI (14, hourly)60.0
Realized vol 7d0.15pt
Change 1h-0.15pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 438d 3h.
Time to resolve438d 3h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.