← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1393317
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 96.4%, up 0.2pt over 24h, on a 1.6¢ spread.
Implied probability96.4%
Bid / ask / mid94.8¢ / 96.4¢ / 95.6¢
Spread1.6¢ (1.7%)
Change 24h+0.20pt
Change 7d-0.40pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 64/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 35% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$130
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$4,440 / $40,392
Imbalance35% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score64.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 75 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.1σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.06
RSI (14, hourly)75.0
Realized vol 7d0.22pt
Change 1h+0.20pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 438d 5h.
Time to resolve438d 5h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.