← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1393319
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 89.0%, up 1.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability89.0%
Bid / ask / mid89.0¢ / 91.0¢ / 90.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (2.2%)
Change 24h+1.50pt
Change 7d+1.50pt
Longshot tax+7% historically (80-90¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 58% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$1,284
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$3,065 / $6,273
Imbalance58% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score44.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.2σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.24
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d0.46pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 438d 5h.
Time to resolve438d 5h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 80-90¢ bucket has returned +7% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.