← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1397270
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
25.5% implied · bid 25.0¢ · ask 26.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 27.0%, up 3.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability27.0%
Bid / ask / mid25.0¢ / 26.0¢ / 25.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (3.9%)
Change 24h+3.50pt
Change 7d-3.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 10% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$3,805
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$528 / $1,589
Imbalance10% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score46.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.89
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d0.74pt
Change 1h-0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 118d 11h.
Time to resolve118d 11h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%